Geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran confrontation over the Strait of Hormuz continues

 

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark for US crude oil, continues to consolidate during the first half of the European trading session. The commodity is trading around $84.25–$84.30 per barrel, remaining close to the two-week high reached earlier on Tuesday. The prevailing fundamental outlook appears supportive of buyers and strengthens the prospect of further near-term gains.

Geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran confrontation over the Strait of Hormuz continues to sustain a significant risk premium in oil prices. Comments attributed to US President Donald Trump on Monday further intensified market concerns. Trump reportedly claimed that the United States had established control over the strategic waterway amid an ongoing naval blockade of Iranian ports, which Washington has threatened to maintain indefinitely.

Trump also renewed the suggestion that the strait could be declared US territory and reportedly threatened military action against Oman if it interfered with efforts to reopen the shipping route. Iran, meanwhile, maintains that the Strait of Hormuz remains under its control and has demanded that Washington accept Tehran’s conditions before commercial shipping can resume.

Additional disruptions to maritime traffic through the Red Sea are providing further support to crude oil prices. Rabobank’s Energy Markets team observed that oil-price movements remain highly sensitive to changing headlines surrounding the Hormuz crisis. According to the bank, Brent crude has fluctuated between approximately $72 and $102 per barrel since the memorandum of understanding reached at the end of June, reacting sharply to every report of a possible peace agreement or renewed escalation.

Regional tensions have also been heightened by increased attacks near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait by Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. The group claimed responsibility for a ballistic-missile attack targeting a Saudi military landing ship, raising fears that the confrontation could develop into a wider regional conflict.

The combined risks affecting the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait are reinforcing concerns about global oil supplies. Against this backdrop, the short-term outlook for crude oil remains positive, and any significant price correction is likely to attract renewed buying interest.