EUR/USD Holds Above 1.1400 as Markets Weigh Geopolitical and Rate Risks

 

The EUR/USD pair remained supported above the 1.1400 level, although upward momentum appeared limited as traders balanced geopolitical uncertainty, US Dollar demand and shifting expectations around interest rates.

The Euro struggled to regain the 1.1450 area as the US Dollar attracted some safe-haven interest. Renewed concerns surrounding tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, alongside weakness in Asian technology shares, encouraged cautious trading and reduced appetite for riskier assets.

However, the Dollar’s strength was also constrained by softer US labour-market data. Recent employment figures showed weaker-than-expected job creation, while previous payroll numbers were revised lower. This has reduced expectations that the US Federal Reserve will need to raise interest rates aggressively.

For the Euro, the outlook remains mixed. Softer inflation data from the Eurozone has led investors to scale back expectations of further European Central Bank tightening. This limits the Euro’s ability to make a strong upward move against the Dollar.

From a technical perspective, EUR/USD faces resistance near 1.1466. A sustained move above that area could open the way toward 1.1516 and 1.1525. Further upside barriers are seen near 1.1587 and 1.1649.

On the downside, initial support is located around 1.1371. If sellers take stronger control, the pair could revisit the 1.1325 region.

Traders will be watching upcoming European and US economic releases, including German Factory Orders, Eurozone sentiment and retail figures, as well as the US ISM Services PMI and comments from Federal Reserve officials. These events could influence expectations around future ECB and Fed policy decisions.