Inflation fears for 2025



The current inflation situation in the USA is relatively stable, with the annual inflation rate standing at 2.7% as of November 2024. This marks a slight increase from the previous month's rate of 2.6%. The inflation rate is influenced by various factors, including energy costs, food prices, and shelter costs.


Key Contributors to Inflation:


- Energy Costs: Although energy costs declined by 3.2% in November, this was less than the 4.9% decline in October.

- Food Prices: Inflation accelerated for food, with prices increasing by 2.4% compared to 2.1% in the previous month.

- Shelter Costs: Inflation slowed for shelter, with prices increasing by 4.7% compared to 4.9% in the previous month.


Monthly CPI Changes:


- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3% in November, which is the most significant increase since April.

- The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose by 3.3% on a yearly basis and 0.3% on a monthly basis.


Overall, while inflation remains a concern, the current rate is relatively manageable, and the Federal Reserve will likely continue to monitor the situation closely.


Employment Numbers


- Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 227,000 in November, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 4.2%.

- Private employers added 146,000 jobs in November, according to the ADP Employment Report.


Job Openings and Turnover


- The number of job openings was little changed at 8.1 million on the last business day of November.

- Quits decreased to 3.1 million, while layoffs and discharges changed little at 1.8 million.

- The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) reported 7,744,000 job openings in October, with a job openings rate of 4.6%.


Industry Trends


- Employment trended up in health care, leisure and hospitality, government, and social assistance, while retail trade lost jobs.

- Job openings rates fell in 4 states and rose in 1, with hire rates rising in 3 states and falling in 2.


Upcoming Releases


- The Employment Situation for December 2024 is scheduled to be released on January 10, 2025.

- Job Openings and Labor Turnover data for November 2024 were released on January 7, 2025.

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